Shots-to-Approximate-Solution Scaling in Neutral-Atom Quantum Optimization

Abstract

Whether neutral-atom quantum optimization protocols exhibit genuine concentration toward low-energy solution structure remains an open question. Here, we introduce a shots-to-approximate-solution metric, STS(r), where r denotes the approximation ratio, and evaluate it using postprocessed outputs modeled by a degeneracy-weighted shell distribution governed by a single effective parameter, $β$, that quantifies concentration toward near-optimal independent sets. To extract the genuine concentration effect in the quantum data, we apply identical postprocessing to both experimental bitstrings and randomly generated bitstrings with matched excitation density, thereby constructing an excitation-matched random baseline. Experiments on programmable Rydberg-atom arrays with system sizes up to 125 sites show that quantum annealing consistently exceeds the random baseline, demonstrating enhanced concentration toward low-energy solution structure beyond what can be attributed solely to excitation density. The results further reveal two distinct target-dependent regimes. For near-exact targets with $r \approx 1$, the required shot count grows exponentially with system size and is reduced at the same exponential level by quantum annealing within the shell-model description. By contrast, for relaxed targets, the shot cost becomes effectively constant, and the corresponding quantum enhancement diminishes, with the classical postprocessing heuristic alone reaching the target in order-unity attempts. Together, these results establish an operational method for quantifying quantum optimization performance and clarify the regimes under which quantum approaches can yield practical benefits.