Preparing to discover the unknown with Rubin LSST -- I: Time domain

Abstract

Perhaps the most exciting promise of the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) is its capability to discover phenomena never before seen or predicted from theory: true astrophysical novelties, but the ability of LSST to make these discoveries will depend on the survey strategy. Evaluating candidate strategies for true novelties is a challenge both practically and conceptually: unlike traditional astrophysical tracers like supernovae or exoplanets, for anomalous objects the template signal is by definition unknown. We present our approach to solve this problem, by assessing survey completeness in a phase space defined by object color, flux (and their evolution), and considering the volume explored by integrating metrics within this space with the observation depth, survey footprint, and stellar density. With these metrics, we explore recent simulations of the Rubin LSST observing strategy across the entire observed footprint and in specific regions in the Local Volume: the Galactic Plane and Magellanic Clouds. Under our metrics, observing strategies with greater diversity of exposures and time gaps tend to be more sensitive to genuinely new phenomena, particularly over time-gap ranges left relatively unexplored by previous surveys. To assist the community, we have made all the tools developed publicly available. Extension of the scheme to include proper motions and the detection of associations or populations of interest, will be communicated in paper II of this series. This paper was written with the support of the Vera C. Rubin LSST Transients and Variable Stars and Stars, Milky Way, Local Volume Science Collaborations.