You better watch out: US COVID-19 wave dynamics versus vaccination strategy

Abstract

We employ the epidemic Renormalization Group (eRG) framework to understand, reproduce and predict the COVID-19 pandemic diffusion across the US. The human mobility across different geographical US divisions is modelled via open source flight data alongside the impact of social distancing for each such division. We analyse the impact of the vaccination strategy on the current pandemic wave dynamics in the US. We observe that the ongoing vaccination campaign will not impact the current pandemic wave and therefore strict social distancing measures must still be enacted. To curb the current and the next waves our results indisputably show that vaccinations alone are not enough and strict social distancing measures are required until sufficient immunity is achieved. Our results are essential for a successful vaccination strategy in the US.