Modelling remote epidemic transmission in Western Australia and implications for pandemic response

Abstract

We develop an agent-based model of disease transmission in remote communities in Western Australia. Despite extreme isolation, we show that the movement of people amongst a large number of small but isolated communities has the effect of causing transmission to spread quickly. Significant movement between remote communities, and regional and urban centres allows for infection to quickly spread to and then among these remote communities. Our conclusions are based on two characteristic features of remote communities in Western Australia: (1) high mobility of people amongst these communities, and (2) relatively high proportion of travellers from very small communities to major population centres. In models of infection initiated in the state capital, Perth, these remote communities are collectively and uniquely vulnerable. Our model and analysis does not account for possibly heightened impact due to preexisting conditions, such additional assumptions would only make the projections of this model more dire. We advocate stringent monitoring and control of movement to prevent significant impact on the indigenous population of Western Australia.